QLK5-2000-00244 Modelling of heterobasidion infection in European forests: a decision-support tool for the forest manager

Contacts
Summary Information



To find similar Items, click on a keyword below:
Crops for Solid Wood Products : Forestry : Quality of Life - 5.3.1 Multifunctional Management of Forests

Contract No:	QLK5-2000-00244
Source:	Six Month Progress Report - January 2001 - Abstract

---

Six Month Progress Report - January 2001 - Abstract

Objective

The basic aim of this Concerted Action is to develop an efficient and effective, user-friendly computer-based model to predict the incidence and future development of Heterobasidion infections. This model will be adaptable to the various coniferous forest ecotypes found in Europe. This project will gather the data required to construct the basic modelling system, which can then be adapted to the requirements of various end-users.

Activities

The main activities in this reporting period were to determine the output forest managers require from a model for estimating the impact of Heterobasidion on forest stands in different parts of Europe (Workpackage 1). Further activities involved with planning for Workpackages 2 and 3 as follows:

• to collate information on stands, models available, and Heterobasidion infection in forests from both published and unpublished sources
• to identify the input data sets required for the model, and
• to prepare a prototype model allowing forest managers to predict the likely effects of Heterobasidion infections on the development and yield of forest stands under different ecological and management conditions.

Results and Milestones

This interim report covers the first 6 months of the project activities. Activities in this period have included substantial work on workpackage 1 and planning for Workpackages 2 and 3. The main work activity concerned the output requirements forest managers expect from a disease model. A questionnaire was developed to gather information from forest managers. The questions asked and responses can be summarised as follows:

Question 1. At what organisational level will this package gain the best use?
Answers Potential users will be forest managers in district offices and other national equivalents. The model will be used mainly at the level of stands within the forest. To use the model for detailed studies there should be a tree-level function.

Question 2. What inputs are available for the model to use in practice?
Answers Some partner countries have a long history of research on the disease, and hence considerable input information is available. Data may include site and forest history, current management protocols, site conditions, frequency of infection (limited data), timber losses, host species susceptibility, etc.

Question 3. What type of interface is most useful to the user?
Answers The model should operate on a standard PC, and should interface with other forest management decision-support tools, including GIS applications, such as Arc-View.

Question 4. What outputs can be used for decision making?
Answers The model should enable users to assess the risk of Heterobasidion infection on particular sites based on parameters such as site history, management history, and current management inputs, including plans for future planting (species choice, rotation length). Rate of disease spread within and between trees, economic impact of the disease and the likely impact of the application of control measures on disease incidence and development may be additional outputs.

Question 5. What parameters do managers want to be able to vary or adjust?
Answers The model should be adaptable to local conditions, to changing needs and should be easily updated. It should also effectively model 'real' stand conditions.

Benefits and Beneficiaries

The main benefits of this project will be in the field of decision-support for forest managers in terms of assessing the likely impact of Heterobasidion on their forests, given different management inputs. Additional benefits will be the availability of powerful predictive technology, useful in research on the disease and, with adjustment, on other root diseases of trees. Better understanding of management effects on disease incidence will benefit the forest industry in general.

Future Actions

WP1. Work will continue on refining the output requirements based on managers' perceived needs Consolidated reports from all partners have been presented at the second meeting in (April 2002) and will be assessed and summarised before the end of the first 12 month period.

WP2. Input requirements listed in the first meeting will be assessed fully and available data required for preliminary model construction determined. Sources of data will be identified before month 12 and the information gathered as far as possible.

WP3. Model prototype construction will begin in month 15 of the project, based on the information from workpackages 1 and 2.

WP4. Work is due to begin in month 21.

Meetings Carried out or planned - Finland, April 2002; Italy, September 2002.